Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.250024 3.038683 4.140388 5.841395 8.496130e+00 1.265542e+01 2.005182e+01
2025-02-09 1.647849 2.578666 4.161339 7.262575 1.379214e+01 2.867949e+01 7.261268e+01
2025-02-16 1.187194 2.081906 3.864235 8.166281 2.027576e+01 6.220156e+01 3.112296e+02
2025-02-23 0.832229 1.590203 3.298721 8.208169 2.626664e+01 1.240323e+02 1.713545e+03
2025-03-02 0.588053 1.200490 2.723082 7.788661 3.161166e+01 2.403846e+02 1.848864e+04
2025-03-09 0.467362 1.024940 2.570802 8.682507 4.822473e+01 7.980925e+02 1.522895e+10
2025-03-16 0.375114 0.874505 2.398067 9.471987 7.327621e+01 3.662845e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.312307 0.771921 2.312217 10.765657 1.234715e+02 4.874276e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.261870 0.680979 2.208078 12.021028 2.116051e+02 3.176454e+07 NaN
2025-04-06 0.210569 0.564913 1.925422 11.619851 2.810920e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.169163 0.464078 1.640259 10.695880 3.360222e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.146181 0.415247 1.554837 11.516404 5.850811e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.130092 0.386061 1.556937 13.702643 1.521407e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.117992 0.366286 1.598123 17.083262 6.018598e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.103735 0.332213 1.532559 18.951344 2.188665e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.088541 0.288403 1.372163 18.449648 5.230208e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.074961 0.246532 1.193860 16.857672 9.064792e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.067576 0.228084 1.159038 18.778942 1.469584e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.060891 0.210150 1.113791 20.452778 2.769983e+09 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.055861 0.197707 1.099746 23.468411 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.051226 0.185355 1.076498 26.431395 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.045401 0.165456 0.974564 25.083824 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.039971 0.145954 0.863032 22.505986 NaN NaN NaN